As in any modern war, the ongoing Middle East crisis is once again placing the heaviest burden on ordinary civilians. According to reports from human rights organizations, nearly 3,600 people have been killed in Iran due to thousands of strikes involving Israel and the United States, including at least 1,700 civilians. Amid this escalating situation, U.S. President Donald Trump has further intensified tensions by issuing severe warnings, including threats suggesting the destruction of Iran’s “civilization.”
At the same time, the internal situation inside Iran has also taken a grim turn. Under the leadership of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, repression has reportedly increased significantly, with widespread internet blackouts and more than 600 executions carried out since the beginning of the year, according to various sources.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, direct clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have resulted in approximately 2,500 deaths since March. Satellite imagery reportedly shows extensive destruction, with entire villages in southern Lebanon reduced to rubble.
The conflict is no longer confined to the battlefield; it has created a major shock to the global economy. Due to instability in the Middle East, oil markets have become highly volatile. Inflation in the United States has risen to 3.3%, while rising fuel prices have driven up the cost of food and essential goods across Asia and Latin America. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that this war could severely damage the agricultural sectors of the world’s poorest nations.
Politically and strategically, Donald Trump himself appears to be facing significant setbacks. His approval rating has reportedly dropped to 37%, with analysts pointing to the failure to achieve war objectives and rising energy costs as major challenges ahead of upcoming elections.
Gulf countries—United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait—who initially sought to avoid escalation, are now among the hardest hit economically. In particular, if Iran effectively closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas exports from these countries could be severely disrupted.
Ukraine is also suffering indirect consequences, as the shift of U.S. military focus toward Iran has led to reduced supply of advanced weapons systems previously allocated for its defense.
However, amid this widespread destruction, a few global players appear to be strategically benefiting. China is maintaining relative stability by leveraging its large energy reserves and positioning itself as a “peace mediator” on the global stage. Russia, on the other hand, has seen its energy revenues nearly double due to rising oil prices, while major global oil corporations are projected to earn massive profits. Additionally, demand for renewable energy is increasing, and the global arms trade has also risen significantly.
Overall, what was once expected by Donald Trump to be a “quick victory” two months ago has now turned into a prolonged strategic quagmire. Analysts suggest that if Iran does not surrender, this conflict may ultimately be remembered as one of the most significant strategic failures in U.S. history.
Trump’s risky strategy: Is the Iran war a big mistake in history?
