Taipei, Taiwan — China’s increasing deployment of coastguard vessels and civilian maritime fleets in waters east of Taiwan has triggered fresh concerns among security analysts that Beijing may be testing a strategy aimed at isolating the self-governed island from international trade, energy supplies and external assistance.
During June and July, China’s Maritime Safety Administration and coastguard carried out a series of patrols and what Beijing described as “special maritime law enforcement operations” around Taiwan. Analysts say the latest activities are significant because Chinese vessels have moved beyond their traditional operations in the Taiwan Strait and have expanded into the eastern waters of the island.
K Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the US-based National Bureau of Asian Research, said the move carries both strategic and symbolic importance. According to Tang, Beijing appears to be signalling its intention to extend its claimed maritime jurisdiction around Taiwan, effectively attempting to increase pressure by surrounding the island rather than focusing only on the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese authorities said Chinese maritime law enforcement operations have included patrols and attempts to obtain information from commercial ships regarding their origins and destinations. Taipei has described the activities as part of a broader campaign of pressure against Taiwan.
The increase in Chinese maritime activity comes amid a wider expansion of operations around Taiwan and its surrounding islands. Taiwanese officials reported dozens of sightings of Chinese coastguard and research vessels in recent months, including activity near the Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Islands, also known as the Pratas Islands, in the South China Sea.
Beijing has defended the operations, saying they are legitimate actions to protect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime interests. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and considers the waters around the island to fall under its jurisdiction. Taiwan, however, rejects Beijing’s claims and maintains that China has no authority over its waters.
Security experts have warned that China’s current maritime activities could represent a “grey zone” strategy — actions designed to increase pressure without triggering a direct military conflict. These tactics can include maritime patrols, military aircraft incursions, cyber pressure and diplomatic isolation.
Ray Powell, founder and director of the Stanford-based maritime transparency project Sea Light, described China’s approach as a “boa constrictor strategy”, arguing that Beijing may be attempting to gradually tighten pressure on Taiwan step by step.
Analysts warn that what begins as routine “law enforcement” activity could potentially evolve into more aggressive measures, including ship inspections, restrictions on maritime movement or even a quarantine-style blockade. Taiwan is considered particularly vulnerable because it relies heavily on imports for energy and essential resources.
China has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to conduct large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. Since 2022, Beijing has carried out several drills involving simulated blockades of the island, signalling that maritime isolation remains one of its potential options in a future crisis.
Chauluen Lin, an expert in asymmetric warfare at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said China’s coastguard should not be viewed merely as a civilian maritime force. The organisation operates under China’s broader security structure and could potentially support military operations if tensions escalate.
The growing Chinese maritime presence has also drawn concern from European countries. The United Kingdom, Germany and France have warned that such actions could threaten regional stability, freedom of navigation and the safety of international shipping.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also criticised the expanded Chinese patrols, saying they undermine stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Beijing may be taking advantage of Washington’s focus on conflicts in the Middle East. He suggested that China could see an opportunity to expand its maritime operations while the United States is managing multiple global crises.
Although Washington does not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent country, the United States has long supported the island’s defence capabilities through arms sales, military training and intelligence cooperation.
Analysts say China’s latest maritime moves do not necessarily indicate an immediate military conflict, but they highlight growing tensions around Taiwan and raise questions about whether Beijing is preparing the groundwork for future pressure campaigns, including a possible blockade scenario.
New chapter in Taiwan crisis, international concern growing over China’s Coast Guard activity
